Investing in the Era of Compounding Change

Why the post-Moore’s Law only world requires a new framework for value creation 

For fifty years, technological progress marched to a predictable drumbeat called Moore’s Law. This linear cadence provided the stable foundation for the PC, the internet, and the mobile revolution by doubling transistor density every two years. 

We have entered the Era of Compounding Change because the drivers of progress have multiplied. While Moore’s Law continues to drive hardware improvements, it is no longer the sole engine of growth. We are now witnessing the convergence of three distinct forces including continued hardware gains, massive increases in data availability, and most critically the compute used to train top-tier models. This training capacity is doubling roughly every 6 months. 

This moves approximately 4x faster than historical hardware cycles. When you layer fast hardware, infinite scale, and smarter algorithms on top of one another, progress ceases to be linear and instead begins to compound. 

The result of this acceleration is emergence. With access to persistent memory and vast context, AI is gaining the ability to plan, remember, and reason over long time horizons. These are not just faster calculators. They are agents capable of relationship building and project continuity. They are collaborators that grow more valuable the more you interact with them. 

The same pattern of adding memory and context is appearing everywhere. Blockchain provides persistent memory for value and trust. Spatial computing provides persistent memory for the physical world. Robotics provides memory for physical movement through shared skill libraries. Even synthetic biology is providing evolutionary memory through lab automation. We are seeing a synchronized shift across every major technology vector. 

Each of these technologies becomes more than just a faster version of what came before. They become adaptive systems that learn and collaborate. This represents a fundamental shift in how value is created. We have moved past the era of simple acceleration and entered the era of compounding. 

We are moving from Hardware Scaling to System Scaling. Where the old model relied on faster chips, the new model relies on technologies that adapt and improve themselves. This represents a total change in the physics of value creation. It is the reason the next ten years will look nothing like the last ten. 

This phase change creates profound structural risks for incumbents and massive opportunities for those who understand the new physics of value creation. To thrive in this environment, investors require a new framework.

We will be unveiling strategic insights for this new era in upcoming deep dives. Stay tuned.

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